Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for July to October 2016

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was +2.83 for May and +3.72 for June. According to the SOI Phase system, the SOI is in a ‘Consistently Near-Zero’ phase.

A map showing the probability of above-median rainfall for the next three-month period (July to September) is available. This map is based on previous years from 1900 to 1998 which, like 2016, had a Consistently Near-Zero SOI over May and June (i.e. 1907, 1908, 1913, 1915, 1919, 1923, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1932, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1939, 1944, 1954, 1960, 1961, 1969, 1976, 1979, 1980, 1991 and 1995). This map indicates a 30 to 40 per cent probability of above-median July to September rainfall for most of Queensland, which is slightly lower than normal (50 per cent).

When using a climate outlook it should be remembered that the probability, or per cent chance, of something occurring is just that – a probability. For example, if there is a 70 per cent probability of above-median rainfall, then there is also a 30 per cent chance of below-median rainfall. It does not mean that rainfall will be 70 per cent more than the median.

Furthermore, while climate outlook schemes cannot provide outlooks with absolute certainty, users who follow a skilful scheme should benefit from doing so in the long-term. Thus, users should consider the historical track record of any scheme, and such information is becoming increasingly available.

Further seasonal climate outlook information for Queensland is available in the Monthly Climate Statement produced by the Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation.