About
The Department of the Environment, Tourism, Science and Innovation’s (DETSI) Seasonal Variability Unit (SVU) interprets seasonal climate outlook information for Queensland and provides a range of reports (click link for more detail). The reports include DETSI’s own information and may also draw on information from national and international climate agencies.
Assessments of rainfall probabilities provided by the DETSI SVU are based on the current state of the ocean and atmosphere and its similarity with previous years. In particular, the SVU monitors the current and projected state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) referring to information such as sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Based on this information, the SVU uses two systems to calculate rainfall probabilities for Queensland:
- The SOI-Phase system produces seasonal rainfall probabilities for the next three-month period based on ‘phases’ of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).
- The DETSI experimental SPOTA-1 system (Seasonal Pacific Ocean Temperature Analysis - version 1), which monitors Pacific Ocean SSTs from March to October each year to produce a statistical analysis of summer (November to March) rainfall probabilities for Queensland. This analysis is calculated based on the relationship between 100 years of historical sea-surface temperature (SST) and rainfall data (more about SPOTA-1).
Outlooks based on both the SOI-Phase system and SPOTA-1 are available, although a password is required to access the experimental SPOTA-1 information (email longpaddock@qld.gov.au).
Independent providers and international research institutions may be listed as information sources. No warranty or endorsement is implied by the Department of the Environment, Tourism, Science and Innovation. Some clients find useful supplementary and comparative information in these services.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) is Australia’s official national weather and climate services provider.
