Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for February to May 2013

Commentary on rainfall probabilities based on 'phases' of the SOI

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) increased from -7.4 in December to -0.3 in January. According to the SOI Phase system, this places the SOI in a ‘Rapidly Rising’ phase.

Based on previous years when the SOI has been in a ‘Rapidly Rising’ phase at the end of January, the probability of above-median rainfall for the next three-month period (February to April) is 40 to 60 per cent for much of Queensland.

Previous years with a ‘Rapidly Rising’ SOI phase at the end of January include 1901, 1902, 1920, 1930, 1931, 1935, 1937, 1940, 1953, 1954, 1963, 1967, 1968, 1977, 1980, 1982, 1986, 1996, 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2006. The rainfall probabilities stated above are based on the 1900 to 1998 period and do not include 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2006.

When using a climate outlook it should be remembered that the probability, or percent chance, of something occurring is just that – a probability. For example, if there is a 70 per cent probability of above-median rainfall, then there is also a 30 per cent chance of below-median rainfall. It does not mean that rainfall will be 70 per cent more than the median.

As the SOI is less reliable as an indicator of rainfall for the autumn season, users are advised not to rely on a single climate outlook alone and should consider the range of climate risk assessment information that is available. In the first instance, users in Queensland may wish to consult the monthly climate statement produced by the Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts.

Further seasonal climate outlook information is available at www.bom.gov.au