Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for August to November 2009

The bottom line

No change to drought declared regions Dave McRae, Qld Climate Change Centre of Excellence, 25th August 2009.

As at 24 August 2009, 35 percent of the land area of Queensland remained drought declared under State processes. There are also 8 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs).

Drought declarations in Queensland are made following recommendations from the local drought committees to the minister. The local drought committees also make the recommendations to the minister for drought declarations to be revoked. This occurs when in their opinion there has been sufficient rainfall to promote enough pasture growth to permit stocking at 'near-normal' carrying capacities for the given time of year.

For a full list of drought declared regions and a seasonal conditions report go the Long Paddock internet site www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au Other information on the current drought situation and available financial assistance, drought planning advice, social, and community counselling services can be found at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/drought or through the QPIF Call Centre on 132523.

As expected there has been a downward shift in likely yield for the winter wheat crop due to ongoing dry conditions and the reduced likelihood of above median rainfall during August to October throughout the state's cropping regions.

Based on the seasonal outlook and current soil water conditions at the end of July, the chance of getting above median shire wheat yields for 2009 is below average for most of Queensland. Widespread rainfall is urgently required over coming weeks (especially around flowering) to improve the current shire wheat outlook.

The regional wheat crop outlook is based on the assumption of cropping after a summer fallow and does not take into account effects of poor crop nutrition or damage due to pests, diseases or frosts. For more information contact Andries Potgieter on (07)46881417 or go to www.dpi.qld.gov.au

Currently there remains a 40 to 50% chance of getting above median rainfall throughout most of Queensland during August to October. The exception is for the region running from the central Queensland coast to the peninsular and adjacent inland area where there is a lower 20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall.

The exception is for the region running from the central Queensland coast to the peninsular and adjacent inland area where there is a lower 20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall. The latest rainfall probability maps are available at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

It is worth noting that August and September have the lowest median monthly rainfall totals for most locations in Queensland. For example median rainfall for August and September at Blackall is 9 mm and 6 mm, at Emerald is 11 mm and 9 mm, at Goondiwindi is 26 mm and 34 mm, at Toowoomba is 33 mm and 41 mm and Mareeba is 2 mm and 2 mm.

The 30 day average of the SOI as of the 25 August is minus 5.5. You can receive a text message with the latest SOI values sent to your mobile phone. To subscribe to this free service, call me on (07) 4688 1459, visit the DERM stand at AgShow or e-mail david.mcrae@climatechange.qld.gov.au