Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for April to July 2008

The bottom line

Outlook stays positive for autumn - winter

The 30 day average of the SOI remained positive throughout March and was plus 10.2 for the month. The SOI Phase for March was 'Consistently Positive' (Phase 2). Based on this SOI and historical rainfall records the outlook for April to June indicates a 50 to70 % chance of above median rainfall for much of Queensland.

Some regions in the far west, the south and the north of Queensland only have a 30 to 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall. The outlook indicates that for an isolated region, encompassing the Cooloola -Sunshine Coast area, there is a 70 % to 80 % chance of above median rainfall. For more information try www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au .

Further analysis indicates rainfall for much Queensland is more likely to be close to or above the long term average (or middle third to upper third) rather than below or well below average.

For those who like to follow the relationship between the SOI and rainfall patterns in more detail have a look at what happened in your area during April to June in the following years; 1950, 1956, 1967, 1971, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1989, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2004. Work out your long term average rainfall for April to June and see how many times rainfall was well below, well above or close to average.

Currently (as at 1 April) the 30 day average of the SOI is plus 10.5.

Most of Queensland received close to or above median rainfall so far this northern wet season. The main exception is the far west of the state, which has received very much below average. There are also dry areas in the south east corner, such as the eastern Darling Downs.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology's summer (December - February) climate summary maximum day time temps have been cooler than normal. Minimum overnight temperatures were close to average in north of the state, but cooler than normal in the southern half of Queensland. For more details try www.bom.gov.au/climate .