Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for November 2007 to February 2008

The bottom line

Lexie Donald

Qld Climate Change Centre of Excellence

27th November 2007

Recent Rains Welcome

Rain over the past week has been patchy, with some very good falls. Most of Queensland received at least 10mm over the past fortnight. There were some much higher falls, including flooding in the Jandowae area after over 100mm in the catchment area on Saturday 24th November.

The 30day average of the SOI remains consistently positive and as of the 27th of November was plus 11.6. The summer outlook will improve for December - February if the SOI maintains this consistently positive pattern (say above plus 7.0) for November. The outlook for rain will continue to be favourable if the SOI remains consistently positive for the next few months.

As of the 26th of November over 60% of the state remains drought declared under state government processes. There are currently 83 shires and 2 part shires drought declared. There are also 17 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further five shires.

Drought declarations in Queensland are made following recommendations from the local drought committees to the minister. Individually Droughted Property status is granted when criteria related to rainfall, pasture and stock conditions are met.

A full list of drought declared shires and seasonal conditions is on www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/>

Other information on the current drought situation and available financial assistance, drought planning advice, social, and community counselling services can be found at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/drought http://www.dpi.qld.gov.au/drought> or through the DPI Call Centre on 132523.

The Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au http://www.bom.gov.au/> Seasonal Temperature Outlook indicates a moderate shift in the odds towards cooler than normal conditions throughout much of north eastern Australia for Summer.

There is a 30 to 50% chance of getting above 'normal' maximum temperatures from December to February throughout Queensland and the Northern Territory. In south eastern Queensland the chances of exceeding median maximum temperatures are only 30 to 40%.

The forecast of cooler than normal maximum temperatures is due to a combination of the La Nina and sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

Average minimum temperatures are likely to be close to normal throughout north eastern Australia from December to February. There is a 45 to 55% chance of getting above average minimum temperatures throughout most of Queensland.

In northern Queensland, north from the Mackay region and across Cape York there is a slightly higher 55-65% chance of above average minimum temperatures.

While maximum temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal, m minimum temperatures will be close to average. During November maximum temperatures have generally been cooler than normal. During the first week of November we saw some warmer overnight minimum temperatures but these have returned to normal, or cooler than normal, over the past few weeks.