Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for September to December 2007

The bottom line

Outlook improves for Queensland.

Dave McRae, Qld Climate Change Centre of Excellence. 3rd September 2007

Compared to this time last year, there has been an improvement in the seasonal outlook for Queensland.

Based on a "Rapidly Rising" SOI phase at the end of August there is a 40 to 70% chance of getting median rainfall for September to November with the highest rainfall probabilities (60 to 70%) being found throughout central Queensland. The exception is for the extreme far south west of the state where there is a lower 20 to 40% chance of getting median rainfall.

While these probabilities may not be as high as some would like, there is a quite reasonable chance of getting some useful rainfall. For example during September to November Kingaroy has a 70% chance of getting at least 140 mm, Jondaryan has a 70% chance of getting at least 120 mm, Roma has a 70% chance of getting at least 100 mm, Emerald has a 70% chance of getting at least 90 mm and St George has a 70% chance of getting at least 60 mm.

When using any probability based forecast you should remember that the probability or percent chance of something occurring is just that - a probability. For example if there is a 70% chance of recording more than 100 mm there is also a 30% chance of recording less than 100 mm i.e. 70-30; 30-70. It does not mean that you will get 70% more than 100 mm or 100 mm plus another 70%. For more on rainfall probabilities for your location refer to Rainman StreamFlow.

To follow the relationship between the SOI and rainfall patterns in more detail have a look at what happened in your area during September to November in the following years: 1904, 1906, 1908, 1928, 1937, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945, 1954, 1962, 1964, 1966, 1967, 1970, 1971, 1983, 1985 and 2000. Find out your average rainfall for September to November and how many times rainfall was well below, well above or close to average during September to November during those years.

For those interested daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439 or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au You can also receive a text message with the latest SOI values sent to your mobile phone. To subscribe to this free service call (07) 46881459.