Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for September to December 2006

The bottom line

Below average wheat yields for Southern Qld Dave McRae 18/09/06

At the end of August, current crop conditions and the seasonal rainfall outlook indicated that the chance of getting above median wheat yields for 2006 is below average for most of Queensland. However there are some large variations between the different cropping regions. For example most areas in central Queensland have yield expectations similar to or above the long-term average wheat yield for that region. This is markedly different from much of Queensland's southern cropping regions where the forecast shire wheat yield is as much as 40% below average for that region.

The regional wheat crop outlook is based on the assumption of cropping after a summer fallow and does not take into account effects of poor crop nutrition or damage due to pests, diseases or frosts. For more information contact Andries Potgieter on (07) 4688 1417.

The Bureau of Meteorology has updated their internet site and now has a section called "Water and the Land". It has a collection of useful information including a 4 day rainfall outlook and information on temperatures, humidity, sunshine, El Nino etc. Go to www.bom.gov.au/watl/index.shtml

Based on a 'Consistently Negative' SOI phase at the end of August, for most of Queensland the chance of getting above the long-term median rainfall for September to November is between 20 to 40%. These low probabilities do not mean there will be no rainfall. While there is a low chance of getting above median rainfall during September to November there is still a reasonable chance of getting useful relief rain.

Over the last few months the latitude of the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure has remained further south than normal. This has contributed to shower and rain activity through the increased flow of moist easterly winds. Its effect has been most noticeable across northern and coastal regions of Queensland.

Conditions in the Pacific continue to indicate a warming trend of ocean temperatures in the central Pacific in the region running eastward along the equator from the international dateline. As we have stated over the last few months, if this warming trend persists it may have a drying affect on our expected rainfall in spring and early summer. This is regardless of whether it is a 'classic' El Nino or not. Its effect is less noticeable in late summer. For more on conditions in the Pacific go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/

For more information refer to Rainman StreamFlow, www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au or contact 132523.