Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for July to October 2006

The bottom line

SOI Remains In Negative Values D McRae 12/07/07 At the time of writing this column the consensus view of most weather forecast models was for relief rain or shower activity across much of Queensland this weekend. A great Australian weather web site with a lot of weather related information including a 7 day forecast worth a look at is www.australianweathernews.com/ A big advantage of this site is that is states where the information used comes from which is not the case with many "weather" sites. In the mean time based on a Consistently Negative SOI phase for the full 3 month period of July to September there is less than a 20% chance of getting above median rainfall for the south west and Burnett regions of Queensland. Throughout the rest of the north east and southern half of the state there is a 20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall (or depending on your view point a 60 to 80% chance of below median rainfall). A Negative SOI phase at the end of June also increases the chance of getting above median maximum temperatures and below median minimum temperatures for July to September across much of Queensland. Interestingly the latitude of the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is further south than normal for this time of year. This has the potential to increase shower activity along the Queensland coast. For NSW, Victoria and Tasmania there is also a low 20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall during July to September. The main exceptions to the low probabilities are for the coastal strip of NSW and for north-west Queensland where there is a 40 to 60% chance of getting above median rainfall. Low probabilities do not mean there will be no rainfall during July to September. All it means is that rainfall will more likely be below median than well above median. For more information refer to Rainman StreamFlow or contact 132523 or (07) 3404 6999.