Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for May to August 2006

The bottom line

SOI Continues to Fluctuate 15th May As of the 15th May the 30 day average of the SOI is plus 2.9. The question at the minute therefore is if the SOI will remain in positive values. Sustained positive monthly SOI values (>2months) would help provide the basis for an improvement in seasonal conditions. The last two active phases of the MJO over north Australia occurred in relatively quick succession during late March/early April and then again in late April. As of the 15th May the MJO was in Phase 8 (Western Hemisphere and Africa) and is therefore next expected across northern Australia around the end of the May or early June. The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not amounts). For more information try www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/ The latest rainfall probability maps are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au and daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439. For more on rainfall probabilities, monthly medians or medians for your location refer to Rainman StreamFlow or contact 132523 or (07) 3404 6999.