Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for May to August 2006

The bottom line

April SOI Phase Consistently Positive 08/05/06

The 30-day average of the SOI as of the 8th May is plus 5.5.

Based on a Consistently Positive SOI Phase at the end of April there is;

* a 50 to 60% chance of getting above the long term May to July median rainfall for the south west of Queensland, * a 60 to 70% chance of getting above the long term May to July median rainfall for the Gulf Country and * 40 to 50% chance of getting above the long term May to July median rainfall for the rest of the state.

It will be interesting to see if the SOI can maintain its current positive values or drops back to near zero or negative values. Sustained positive monthly SOI values (>3 months) would help provide the basis for a widespread improvement in seasonal conditions.