Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for January to April 2006

The bottom line

SOI Remains Stable 10/01/06

The 30-day average of the SOI has remained relatively stable over the last few weeks and as of the 11th January is plus 1.1. Based on a "Near Zero" SOI phase at the end of December and historical rainfall data there is a 40 to 60% chance of getting above median rainfall for January to March across most of Queensland. While not as optimistic as if the SOI was in a "Consistently Positive" phase the chance of above median rainfall remains higher than this time last year when the SOI was in a "Consistently Negative" phase.

The latest rainfall probability maps are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au and daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439.

In the media this week has been coverage about Tropical Cyclone Clare. For those interested the Bureau of Meteorology has information on cyclones at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone/ The Bureau also provide monthly significant weather summaries covering unusual, extreme and interesting weather events such as record temperatures and rainfall events, storms, floods, fires, tropical cyclones and other meteorological events which have had a significant impact on Australian life at http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/services_policy/public/sigwxsum/sigwmenu.sh tml