Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for January to April 2006
The bottom line
SOI Remains Near Zero 05/01/06
Since the start of December the SOI has remained relatively stable and is now in a "Near Zero" phase. Based on this SOI phase and historical rainfall data there is a 40 to 60% chance of getting above median rainfall for January to March across most of Queensland.
While the outlook is not as optimistic as if the SOI was in a "Consistently Positive" phase, the chance of above median rainfall is higher than this time last year when the SOI was in a "Consistently Negative" phase.
The latest rainfall probability maps are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au and daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439.
The full story
Climate Watch QDPI&F 05/01/06
After a dry December, there has been some welcome storm driven relief rain in early January. Unfortunately these storm have caused some crop and property damage. There remains an increased risk of severe storms this summer.
Due to their patchy nature of storms, areas have missed out on the bigger falls or like most of the south west and north east are still waiting for some relief rain. Most of Queensland needs more rain before well above average totals for this summer are recorded or before the rain could be called 'drought breaking'.
The next climate induced opportunity for rainfall should occur with the next passage of the MJO. However it would be surprising to see the MJO influence our weather before late January.
The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not amounts). For more information try www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/ or http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml
Current sea surface temperature patterns are especially interesting due to the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures that can be found around Australia's eastern and northern coastline. If this warming trend continues it may have a positive influence on our expected summer rainfall.
According to information from the Bureau of Meteorology "El Niño wrap up" at www.bom.gov.au/ the key indicators of the SOI, trade winds and sea surface temperatures (SST) confirm the persistence of a neutral sea surface temperature and climate pattern in the Pacific (i.e. no El Niño). This pattern would therefore be unlikely to change before the end of summer.
In terms of output from 12 surveyed reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere forecast models, all 12 are showing a continuing neutral SST pattern through to April next year. For more information on conditions in the Pacific try the US Climate Prediction Centre at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Since the start of December the SOI has remained relatively stable and is now in a "Near Zero" phase. Based on this SOI phase and historical rainfall data there is a 40 to 60% chance of getting above median rainfall for January to March across most of Queensland.
While the outlook is not as optimistic as if the SOI was in a "Consistently Positive" phase, the chance of above median rainfall is higher than this time last year when the SOI was in a "Consistently Negative" phase.
The latest rainfall probability maps are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au and daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439.
For more on rainfall probabilities, monthly averages or medians for your location refer to Rainman StreamFlow or contact me on 132523 or (07) 3404 6999 and I'll send you any information I have.
For those who like to follow the relationship between the SOI and rainfall patterns in more detail have a look at what happened in your area during January to March in the following years; 1994, 1991, 1990, 1988, 1986, 1985, 1984, 1982, 1981, 1980, 1979, 1975, 1972 and 1970.
For example at Springsure below median rainfall for January to March in those years was recorded twice, close to median rainfall was recorded ten times and above median rainfall was twice. Information on what rainfall patterns where like for January to March in those years can be found in Rainman StreamFlow.
Similar to Queensland across the rest of Australia there is a 40 to 60% chance of getting above median rainfall for January to March. For more information on rainfall probabilities at your specific location refer to Rainman StreamFlow.
This forecast does not indicate the potential distribution or expected timing of rainfall over this period. The forecast is for a full three-month period and does not suggest that any expected rain will fall evenly across these three months.
Soil water conditions and the seasonal outlook at the end of December indicate that the chance of getting above median shire sorghum crop yields for northern NSW and Queensland during the 2005/2006 season is close to average. However the outlook does vary on a regional basis.
More specifically, there is a below average chance of getting above the long-term median shire sorghum yield for much of central Queensland and the Darling Downs while northern NSW and the Dawson Callide have average to above average chances of getting above the long-term median shire sorghum yield.
The downward trend in crop yield expectation from last month is a result of the below average rainfall recorded in most of northern NSW and Queensland's cropping region during December. This regional sorghum crop outlook is based on the assumption of cropping after a winter fallow and the calculation of benchmark yields and the outlook does not take into account effects of poor crop nutrition or damage due to pests, diseases or frosts.
It should be noted that at this stage of the season, there is a wide range of likely yield outcomes for the 2005/2006 season. For more information on the regional sorghum crop outlook, contact Andries Potgieter on (07) 46881417 or try www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate where a copy the crop outlook can be found.
An interesting site http://www.cvap.gov.au/mastersoftheclimate/ from the 'Climate Variability In Agriculture' (CVAP) research and development program is well worth looking at. It highlights some case studies on how producers and businesses have used (to varying levels of success) climate and weather information in their decision-making processes.
Every month the department issues by e-mail "The Climate Note". It is a reasonably detailed climate summary and covers topics such as rainfall outlook, ENSO, analogue years, drought declarations etc. To subscribe send your e-mail address to david.mcrae@dpi.qld.gov.au It is also available at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate
