Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for August to November 2005
The bottom line
Climate Watch 15th August 2005
Current seasonal conditions and the climate forecast indicate that chances for an above median yielding Queensland wheat crop during the 2005 season are above average. Almost all shires show a 60 to 90% chance of exceeding the long-term median shire wheat yield. The exception is for the wheat growing shires of southeast Qld which show probabilities close to average (i.e. 50:50).
The APSRU/DPI&F wheat yield outlook is based on a shire scale. It does not take into account crop area planted and is purely a yield forecast. It does not take into account individual property circumstances or the effects and damage from poor crop nutrition, pests, diseases, frosts and distribution of planting rain within a shire. It should be noted that forecast quality of the crop outlook improves as the season progresses.
For more information on the regional wheat crop outlook contact Andries Potgieter on (07) 46881417 or try www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate where a copy can be found.
The number of drought declared shires in Queensland has remained steady. As of the 3rd August there were 61 shires and 7-part shires drought declared under State government drought processes. This is approximately 60.6% of the land area of the State. There are also 103 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 17 shires. As well there is a Commonwealth Government Exceptional Circumstances Declaration covering 55.6% of the state.
Information regarding drought declarations can be obtained from your local DPI Stock Inspector or the Rural Risk Strategies Unit. The unit can be contacted through the DPI&F Call Centre on 132523 or on (07) 3239 3181. For a full list of drought declared shires and the latest seasonal conditions report go to www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/
As of the 15th August the 30-day average of the SOI is minus 6.5. Based on a 'Near Zero' SOI phase at the end of July the chance of receiving well above average rainfall for August to October across most of Queensland is low. Therefore rainfall is likely to be average to below average for August to October.
For more information call the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23 or (07) 3404 6999.
