Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for July to October 2005

The bottom line

SOI in Rising Phase 19/07/05

Since the start of the month the 30-day average of the SOI has remained in positive values and as of Tuesday the 19th July is plus 3.4. It will be very interesting to see if the recent positive SOI values are maintained over coming weeks. Daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439.

Based on a rising SOI phase at the end of June most of Queensland has above a 60% chance of getting median rainfall for July through to the end of September. The exception to this is for inland far north where the chance of above median rainfall for July to September is lower.

Many people like to follow the relationship between the SOI and rainfall patterns in more detail. To do that, have a look at what happened in your area over July to September in the following years; 2001, 1998, 1996, 1986, 1973, 1970, 1967, 1966, 1958, 1957, 1953, 1951, 1950, 1947 and 1945 and compare the rainfall recorded with your 'normal' rainfall for July to September.

Information on what rainfall patterns where like for July to September in those years can be found in Rainman StreamFlow. The latest rainfall probability maps are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

For those after short term (out to 10 day) weather forecasts try the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) web site at www.bom.gov.au which contains daily forecasts, maps, satellite images, climate outlooks, averages for different locations etc.

Two overseas sites worth a look are www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ausavnpanel4.html which has a 9-day rainfall outlook and http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html which has a 0-5 and 6-10 day rainfall outlook for Australia.

For more information call the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23 or (07) 3404 6999.