Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for July to October 2005

The bottom line

SOI Rapidly Rises 01/07/05

Based on the rise in monthly value of the SOI from minus 11.7 at the end of May to 0.5 at the end of June the SOI is in a Rapidly Rising Phase.

Based on this pattern the chance of above median rainfall has improved for much of Queensland. For July through to the end of September most of the state has above a 50 to 60% chance getting median rainfall.

It will be very interesting to see if this upward trend is maintained over coming weeks or if it is just a short-term fluctuation.

As we have stated regularly, for there to be an overall widespread improvement in conditions across the state, it would help if the SOI went into positive values for a couple of months at least. The last time the SOI was in a "Consistently Positive" phase was for one month in March 2004 and before that was in March 2001.

The latest rainfall probability maps for Queensland, Australia and the world are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

For more specific information for your location refer to Rainman StreamFlow or call the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23 or (07) 3404 6999.