Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for June to September 2005

The bottom line

Rain Welcome But Queensland Drought Declarations Rise 14/06/05

For those who received some useful falls the recent rain was welcome. Given how dry it has been though and the patchy nature of the rainfall especially in Queensland there are still many looking for more. However it will help establish winter crops especially across southern wheat growing regions and steady the flow of droughted cattle onto the market.

Despite the rain the number of drought declared shires in Queensland has increased. As of the 10th June there were 58 shires and 7part shires drought declared under State government drought processes. This is approximately 60.1% of the land area (increase of about 3% over the last month) of the State. There are also 107 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 17 shires. For a full list of drought declared shires go to www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/

Information regarding drought declarations can be obtained from your local DPI&F stock inspector or the Rural Risk Strategies Unit. This unit is responsible for the payment of drought freight subsides, processing recommendations for Shire/Area drought declarations, developing applications for Exceptional Circumstances assistance from the Federal Government and advising the Minister on seasonal conditions. For more information go to www.dpi.qld.gov.au/drought/ or contact the DPI&F Call Centre on 132523

As well NRAC (the National Rural Advisory Council) is currently visiting the Darling Downs, Sunshine Coast and hinterland, Western Darling Downs and Maranoa, central coast and southern south-east coast, Stanthorpe, Inglewood and Central Queensland to re-examine the drought-affected regions of Queensland where federal exceptional circumstances (EC) assistance has been revoked over the last 10 months.

In the mean time the 30-day average of the SOI has remained in negative values and as of the 13th June was minus 15.5. Daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439.

Based on the May SOI value there is a 30 to 40% chance of getting median rainfall for winter across the southern half of the state. Low rainfall probabilities also extend into parts of western Queensland, the Central Highlands, Burdekin and the lower half of the peninsular which also have less than a 30 to 40% chance of getting median rainfall for June to August.

For the rest of the state there is generally around a 40 to 50% chance of getting median rainfall for winter. It is worth noting that we have entered our normally drier time of year. The latest rainfall probability maps for Queensland, Australia and the world are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

For more specific information for your location refer to Rainman StreamFlow or call the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23 or (07) 3404 6999.