Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for October to January 2005

The bottom line

SOI Remains In Near Zero Phase (20/10/04)

As of the 20th October the 30day average of the SOI has remained stable and is minus 3.6.

Based on the current SOI phase and available rainfall records, there is a 40 to 50% chance of getting above median rainfall through to the end of December across much of Queensland. However, especially for parts of the north and west of the state there is only a 30 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall through to the end of December.

For example, Emerald has a 35% chance of getting above its long-term October to December median rainfall of 175 mm, Charters Towers has a 38% chance of getting above its October to December median rainfall of 130 mm, Roma has a 40% chance of getting above its October to December median rainfall of 165 mm, and Dalby has a 55% chance of getting above its October to December median rainfall of 210 mm.

Because rainfall probabilities and median rainfall levels vary between regions, we recommend referring to Rainman StreamFlow for more specific information. Otherwise call the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23 or (07) 3404 6999.