Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for April to July 2004

The bottom line

SOI remains in negative values. (dated 28th April)

The SOI has remained in negative values and of the 28th April, the 30DAY AVERAGE is minus 20.2.

Rainfall probabilities for the next 2-3 months across most of Queensland remain reasonable. At present there is a 50-70% chance of getting above the long-term median rainfall through to the end of June.

However the outlook beyond the end of April could change quite significantly. Therefore we stress the need to update this information regularly. The seasonal outlook for May to July will be issued next week.

As expected the MJO (also know as the 40 day wave) is currently having an influence on our weather. Given the ongoing dry conditions in many areas it will be interesting to see how much 'useful' rain this passage of the MJO helps generates.

The MJO is simply a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events across much of Queensland.