Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for April to July 2004

The bottom line

SOI continues to 'fall'. 07/04/04

The recent downward trend of the SOI has been generating much interest. As of the 7th of April the 30day average of the SOI is minus 11.0.

While it may be too early to say if an El Nino is developing, we will monitor sea surface temperature patterns and the SOI very closely over the next couple of months.

At this stage rainfall probabilities for the next 2-3 months remain reasonable with a 60-80% chance of getting at least the long-term median rainfall through to the end of June for parts of central Queensland, as well as along the central and south east coastal strip of the state.

Across the rest of the state, there remains no strong signal towards wetter or drier than 'normal' conditions.

However the outlook beyond the end of April could change quite significantly and we stress the need to update this information on a regular basis.