Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for August to November 2003

The bottom line

30Day average of SOI remains near zero (Dated 27/08/03)

As of the 27th August the 30day average of the SOI remains close to zero at plus 0.1.

Based on the recent pattern of the SOI, the chance of getting above the long term August to October median rainfall remains reasonable at around 50-80% for most of Queensland.

Many readers of this column like to follow the timing of the MJO (also know as the 40day wave). The MJO is simply a band of low atmospheric pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 50 days.

While it is a tropical phenomenon, it appears to indicate the timing of potential rainfall events (but unfortunately not rainfall amounts) over central and southern Queensland.

The last passage of the MJO influenced Queenslands weather around mid July producing some generally useful falls across the state. As it's timing appears to have shifted out to approximately 50days it is next expected to influence our weather in early September.

An updated outlook covering September to November will be released next week.