Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for August to November 2003
The bottom line
Climate Watch Dave McRae Queensland Dept of Primary Industries 04/08/03
SOI In Rapidly Rising Phase
The SOI has continued to slowly rise since the end of June (minus 13.2) through to the end of July (plus 3.2). Based on this shift in value the SOI is now in a "Rapidly Rising" phase.
For those interested in following historical rainfall patterns more closely, some of the years that have had the same SOI pattern at the end of July include 1999, 1998, 1988, 1985, 1984, 1979, 1974, 1963, 1960, 1954, 1949, 1948, 1947, 1943, 1939, 1936 and 1933. It can be useful to find out what rainfall and farming conditions where like in your area for August to October in those years. Information on what rainfall patterns where like in those years is available at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au
Based on the pattern of the SOI over June/July, rainfall probabilities across much of Queensland have risen. Currently there is a 50-80% chance of getting or getting above the long term August to October median rainfall across most of the southern two thirds of Queensland as well as the top half of Cape York Peninsular.
Rainfall probabilities across the rest of the state though are patchy with lower probabilities (eg 30-40%) persisting across much of the far west of the state.
The current rainfall probability maps are available at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au
Its also worth remembering that August and September are the two driest months of the year across most of Queensland so high rainfall totals are not common at this time of year. For example, the long term August/September/October median rainfall level for Dalby is 116mm, Talwood is 90mm, Quilpie is 36mm, Birdsville is 19mm, Emerald is 75mm, Townsville is 39mm, Mareeba is 16mm, Cloncurry is 16mm, Normanton is 6mm, and Weipa is 22mm.
As always when using any probability based forecast system, it is important to consider the alternate view. For example, Clermont currently has a 70% chance of getting above 60mm for August to October. This also means that there is a 30% chance of not getting above 60mm.
Another way of looking at this is that in 7 years out of 10 (or slightly less than three quarters) with the current SOI pattern, Clermont has received more than 60mm for August to October. Therefore in 3 years out of 10 (slightly more than one quarter), Clermont has gotten less than 60mm for this period.
The full story
Climate Watch Dave McRae Queensland Dept of Primary Industries 04/08/03
The SOI has continued to slowly rise since the end of June (minus 13.2) through to the end of July (plus 3.2). Based on this shift in value the SOI is now in a "Rapidly Rising" phase.
For those interested in following historical rainfall patterns more closely, some of the years that have had the same SOI pattern at the end of July include 1999, 1998, 1988, 1985, 1984, 1979, 1974, 1963, 1960, 1954, 1949, 1948, 1947, 1943, 1939, 1936 and 1933. It can be useful to find out what rainfall and farming conditions where like in your area for August to October in those years. Information on what rainfall patterns where like in those years is available at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au
Based on the pattern of the SOI over June/July, rainfall probabilities across much of Queensland have risen. Currently there is a 50-80% chance of getting or getting above the long term August to October median rainfall across most of the southern two thirds of Queensland as well as the top half of Cape York Peninsular (refer to map).
Rainfall probabilities across the rest of the state though are patchy with lower probabilities (eg 30-40%) persisting across much of the far west of the state.
The current rainfall probability maps are available at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au
Its also worth remembering that August and September are the two driest months of the year across most of Queensland so high rainfall totals are not common at this time of year.
For example, the long term August/September/October median rainfall level for Dalby is 116mm, Talwood is 90mm, Quilpie is 36mm, Birdsville is 19mm, Emerald is 75mm, Townsville is 39mm, Mareeba is 16mm, Cloncurry is 16mm, Normanton is 6mm, and Weipa is 22mm.
As always when using any probability based forecast system, it is important to consider the alternate view. For example, Clermont currently has a 70% chance of getting above 60mm for August to October. This also means that there is a 30% chance of not getting above 60mm.
Another way of looking at this is that in 7 years out of 10 (or slightly less than three quarters) with the current SOI pattern, Clermont has received more than 60mm for August to October. Therefore in 3 years out of 10 (slightly more than one quarter), Clermont has gotten less than 60mm for this period.
Rainfall probabilities across the rest of Australia are patchy. For parts of central and the north west of NSW, central South Australia and the north west of WA rainfall probabilities are quite reasonable at 50-70%. Rainfall probabilities across the rest of Australia though are lower at 30-50%.
The latest information from both the United States Climate Prediction Centre www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ and the Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au highlights that a neutral sea temperature pattern can be currently found in the Pacific.
While the current sea surface temperature pattern is an improvement over the last 12 months it has not changed significantly to guarantee a large improvement in overall conditions throughout Queensland. Unfortunately the recent atmosphere and ocean temperature trends do not support the development of a La Nina in the next few months.
Some concern has also been raised about a notable rewarming of subsurface temperatures throughout the central Pacific over the last few weeks following strong westerly winds bursts during late May and early June. As well the preferred easterlies and south east trade winds have been weaker than average.
Due to these ongoing changes the chance of an El Nino regenerating while remaining low has increased marginally. However a late winter or spring transition into an El Nino sea temperature pattern is quite unusual.
For the longer term outlook (3-6months) to improve substantially there needs to be a return to more sustained positive monthly SOI values and a cooling of sun surface sea temperature in the central and eastern Pacific.
Drought declarations for Queensland have generally remained stable over the last couple of months. However there was an increase in drought declared areas in north west Queensland.
Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural Communities declared the area of McKinlay shire north of the Flinders Highway under state drought processes effective 18 June 2003. As of the 25th July there are 90 shires and 5 part shires declared under state processes, which represents approximately 65% of the State of Queensland. There are also 114 Individually Droughted Properties (IDP's) in a further 14 shires.
In Queensland, drought declarations are made by the Minister upon recommendation from Local Drought Committees (LDCs). Individually Droughted Property (IDP) status is granted when criteria related to rainfall, pasture and stock conditions are met. Shire or part-shire declarations are only recommended by LDCs when the numbers of IDPs become too great to administer effectively.
Drought status is revoked if and when there has been sufficient rainfall to promote enough pasture growth to permit stocking at 'normal' or 'near-normal' carrying capacities for the given time of year.
For the latest seasonal conditions report and information on the number of drought declared shires etc try www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/drought
Other information on the current drought situation and available financial assistance, drought planning advice, social, community and counselling services can be found on the internet site www.dpi.qld.gov.au/drought/ or through the DPI Call Centre on 132523.
