Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for July to October 2003

The bottom line

Recent Rise In SOI Value Dated 16/07/03)

The 30day average of the SOI has risen slightly over the last couple of weeks from a low of minus 16.7 on the 18th June to minus 4.7 as of the 16th July. It will be very interesting to see if this upward trend is maintained through to the end of the month.

If the SOI does not return too more positive values by the end of July, rainfall probabilities would be expected to substantially fall in value for the following months. For those who like to follow the fluctuations of the SOI, daily updates are available on (07) 46881439.

Based on the shift in the monthly value of the SOI from minus 5 at the end of May to minus 12.3 at the end of June, rainfall probabilities across Queensland for July to September are mixed.

While probabilities for Queensland are an improvement over the situation this time last year they are not high enough to guarantee state wide drought breaking rains in the short term. Currently there is a 50-70% chance of getting above the long term July to September average for southern Queensland. Rainfall probabilities across the rest of the state though are lower around 20-50% depending on location.