Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for June to September 2003

The bottom line

As of the 18th June the 30day average of the SOI is minus 16.7.

Despite the low SOI value for most of the southern two thirds of Queensland there is a 50-70% chance of getting above the long term June to August median rainfall. While these rainfall probabilities are an improvement over the situation this time last year, they are currently not high enough to guarantee widespread drought-breaking rains in the medium term.

In order to improve Queenslands longer term overall seasonal outlook, the SOI will need to return to more sustained positive monthly values. It should also be remembered that much of Queensland remains drought declared and this may not dramatically improve until summer.