Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for July to October 2002

The bottom line

No Change In Outlook. (Dated 24/07/02)

Conditions throughout the state generally remain dry. Unfortunately the recent passage of the 30-50day intra-seasonal oscillation (also known as the MJO) did not help induce any significant rainfall events across Queensland. It would next be expected to influence our weather in late August.

The timing of this phenomenon can alter and it is worth remembering that it is an indicator as to the potential timing of rainfall events rather than an indicator as to potential rainfall amounts across southern and central Queensland. Given the overall dry conditions that have existed for most of the year across Queensland, many producers will be waiting to see if the next passage of this phenomenon helps create some state-wide relief rainfall.

The 30day average of the SOI as of the 24th July is -9.6. Based on the recent pattern of the SOI there is only a low 10-30% chance of getting the long term median rainfall over July to September for most of Queensland. These low rainfall probabilities also extend across most of eastern Australia.

The rainfall outlook for the rest of the year will depend on how the current SOI pattern develops. If the SOI remains negative, these low rainfall probabilities would be expected to continue.