Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for January to April 2002

The bottom line

SOI pattern gives contrasting outlook. Dated 09/01/02

The 30day average of the SOI as of the 9th January 2002 is -9.5.

The recent pattern of the SOI indicates rainfall probabilities especially across western and central Queensland remain relatively high for the time being. These areas that have relatively high probabilities (60% to 90%) of getting above median rainfall for January to March include a strip running from Bourke and the western half of Dalrymple shires in the north through to the Waroo, Bungil and Yuleba shires in the south. Cairns, Douglas and Cook shires also have relatively high rainfall probabilities.

The down side of the recent pattern of the SOI is that rainfall probabilities have fallen once again across south east Queensland. This area includes the eastern Darling Downs and Burnett regions. Rainfall probabilities also remain relatively low in parts of the Croydon, Etheridge, Richmond, Emerald, Bauhinia and Duaringa shires.

Given this drop in the value of the SOI and the potential development of an El Niño sometime around autumn 2002, we recommend viewers keep track of the sea surface temperature patterns and any shifts in the monthly value of the SOI over the next few months.