Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for October to January 2002
The bottom line
The 30day average of the SOI as of the 17th October is -0.5.
Many areas across Queensland received some useful relief rainfall over the last week While wide spread, the rainfall totals received varied greatly depending on location. The big question at present is will the relief rainfall continue?
In our opinion, given the on-going changes in the larger climate patterns, the longer term seasonal outlook past December is still of concern with some of the models still showing the potential for an El Niño to develop later this year or early next year. Therefore for those readers looking further out to see what the seasonal conditions will be like into next year keeping track of any shifts in the SOI value and SST pattern is still recommended.
Based on the upwards trend of the SOI over August/September, the regions of the state that have had a slight improvement in rainfall probabilities include parts of the Chinchilla, Wondai, Mundubbera, Gayndah, Perry, Monto, Murweh, Blackall, Jericho, Aramac, Longreach, Winton, Mt Isa, Bourke, Cloncurry, Nebo and Duaringa shires. These areas all have a 60-70% chance or probability of getting or exceeding the median rainfall over October-December.
While the rest of the state has around a 30-60% probability of getting or exceeding the historical median rainfall over October-December, the current patchy nature of these probabilities highlights the need for producers to get outlook information for their specific area.
More climate related information is available on the DPI's climate web site www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or by contacting the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23. A recorded message with the 30day average of the SOI is available on 46881439.
The full story
Slight Lift in Rainfall Probabilities across Qld
The 30day average of the SOI has risen over the last few weeks to +1.5 as of the 1st of October. Based on this shift in the value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over August/September there has been a corresponding slight lift in rainfall probabilities across much of Queensland for the October-December period (refer to map).
Regions of the state that have had a slight improvement in rainfall probabilities include parts of the Chinchilla, Wondai, Mundubbera, Gayndah, Perry, Monto, Murweh, Blackall, Jericho, Aramac, Longreach, Winton, Mt Isa, Bourke, Cloncurry, Nebo and Duaringa shires. These areas all have a 60-70% chance or probability of getting or exceeding the median rainfall over October-December.
However areas of lower rainfall probabilities still exist. These include the southern half of Dalrymple shire and a strip running from the western half of Quilpie shire to the southern half of Cloncurry shire where there is only a 30-50% chance of getting or exceeding the median rainfall over the October-December period.
The rest of the state has around a 50-60% probability of getting or exceeding the historical median rainfall over October-December.
As always when using probability based forecasts the opposite always applies. For example, if there is a 20% chance of getting above the median rainfall at a location over the next three months there is an 80% chance of getting below it.
During the past few months the 40day wave and its influence on Queenslands rainfall has been hard to identify. However it is next expected to effect us in early October. It is important to take into account when considering the influence of the 40day wave that it is an indicator as to the possible timing of rainfall rather than the amount of possible rainfall.
For those who like to follow historical patterns more closely years in the past that had a Rapidly Rising SOI Phase for August/September include 1989, 1983, 1979, 1970, 1949, 1936,1931, 1926, 1922 and 1921. What was the rainfall like for October-December in your area for those years? For example, at Crow's Nest for 8 of the last 10 times that a Rapidly Rising Phase existed at the end of September, above median rainfall was recorded over the October-December period. However at Boulia this only occurred in 4 out of the last 10 times that a rapidly rising SOI phase existed at the end of September.
Recent research has also shown that a "Consistently Rapidly Rising" SOI phase at the end of September increases the potential for severe storm activity over the coming months across southern Queensland and northern NSW.
Also of interest at present is the trend of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes in the central Pacific Ocean. This partially resembles sea surface temperature patterns and trends experienced throughout the 1992-94 period. It will be interesting to see if this warming trend in the central Pacific Ocean continues and if so by how much.
Further substantial warming in this region could be considered an early warning of the potential reduction in expected rainfall across northern Australia and PNG over late summer and well into next year. Even though the outlook for the medium term has improved slightly many climate research institutions around the world believe the necessary preconditions required for the onset of an El Niño in the longer term still exist.
Therefore the key point at present is to keep track of any shifts in the SOI value and changes in sea surface temperature patterns over the next couple of months, as these will provide the indicators as to rainfall probabilities for summer and into next year.
More climate related information is available on the DPI's climate web site www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or by contacting the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23. A recorded message with the 30day average of the SOI is available on 46881439
