Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for October to January 2000
The bottom line
SOI Message - 13 October 1999
The average SOI over the last 30 days was +2.4 . The probabilities of exceeding median rainfall during the total October to December period remain around 50% in the eastern half of Australia.
The full story
Review of Climatic Forecasts and Information
Based on the latest values and trends of the SOI, the probabilities of exceeding median rainfall during the total October to December period are mainly around 50% in the eastern half of Australia.
Colder than normal equatorial sea-surface temperatures are now present from around the International Dateline to the Central Pacific Ocean, and in most of the eastern Pacific. However, temperatures now are mainly normal in waters off Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean indicate a very weak La Nina pattern perhaps closer to a neutral pattern. Converse to last month, most experimental models are now suggesting that only neutral conditions will predominate in 6 months time.
SSTs in the Indian Ocean off Western Australia are warmer than normal. The latest outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology for November-December-January uses these temperatures to suggest high chances of above-median rainfall for the November-January period.
The likelihood of above-median pasture growth in October to December during a 'neutral' SOI year varies little from that in all years. Providing rainfall is at least average over that period, prospects for above-average pasture growth are high in areas where pasture condition is good (i.e. high perennial grass basal cover).
The next passage of the 30- to 50-Day Oscillation is expected about the third week of October.
It is important to obtain more detailed information for your location. We recommend combined use of the Australian RAINMAN package and the Bureau of Meteorology's Seasonal Climate Outlook. Also a lot of additional information is available on our FarmFax system, our Internet World Wide Web service called 'The Long Paddock', and on BoM's Fax and internet information services.
